[TeMPOraL]

> Am I the only one to expect a S curve regarding progress and not an eternal exponential ?

To LLMs specifically as they're now? Sure.

To LLMs in general, or generative AI in general? Eventually, in some distant future, yes.

Sure, progress can't ride the exponent forever - observable universe is finite, as far as we can tell right now, we're fundamentally limited by the size of our light cone. And while in any field narrow enough, progress too follows an S-curve, new discoveries spin off new avenues with their own S-curves. If you zoom out a little those S-curves neatly add up to an exponential function.

So no, for the time being, I don't expect LLMs or generative AIs to slow down - there's plenty of tangential improvements that people are barely beginning to explore. There's more than enough to sustain exponential advancement for some time.

[cj]

I think the parent’s main point is that even if LLMs sustain exponential advancement, that doesn’t guarantee that humanity’s advancement will mimic technology’s growth curve.

In other words, it’s possible to have rapid technological advancement without significant improvement/benefit to society.

[TeMPOraL]

> In other words, it’s possible to have rapid technological advancement without significant improvement/benefit to society.

This is certainly true in many ways already.

On the other hand, it's also complicated, because society/culture seems to be downstream of technology; we might not be able to advance humanity in lock step or ahead of technology, simply because advancing humanity is a consequence of advancing technology.

[btilly]

If the constraint is computation in a light cone, the theoretical bound is time cubed, not exponential. With a major decrease in scaling as we hit the bounds of our galaxy.

Intergalactic travel is, of course, rather slow.