[m_ke]

Except we’re probably decades away from reliable open ended agents that can be trusted to perform any task.

There’s a reason why waymo started out in SF and Phoenix, getting to enough 9s to be hands off is really hard and current ML based systems don’t extrapolate well to new environments.

[timabdulla]

That's certainly possible. I'm not convinced AGI is just around the corner either, but I can't say with a high degree of certainty that it definitely won't arrive in the next few years.

[m_ke]

We’ll definitely get above human level performance for a lot of tasks soon. It just won’t be general and reliable enough to do open ended tasks the way competent humans do.

So we’ll have models that can fill out and validate a tax return, and give you reasonable financial advice, but we won’t have an off the shelf general LLM from OpenAI that can replace an accountant at any random business anytime soon.