[Hammershaft]

The last two years of climate data from sources all over the world has been completely out of distribution. Recently scientists have struggled to understand it because it's worse than the worst predicted trendlines in their models.

[rUsHeYaFuBu]

I'm far from an expert. However I wonder if this is partially tied to under estimates in methane leaks in natural gas delivery and CO2 connected to concrete construction

[toomuchtodo]

I believe it is positive feedback loop tipping points being reached (thawing permafrost, for example), which is accelerating change beyond was was previously modeled.

https://salatainstitute.harvard.edu/thawing-permafrost-what-...

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...

[toomuchtodo]

Additional citation:

A third of the Arctic’s vast carbon sink now a source of emissions, study reveals - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/21/third-of...

Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic–boreal CO2 uptake - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02234-5

[emchammer]

I am not an expert either. However I cannot imagine that those sources come close to the volume of methane leaked from clathrates.

Hammershaft's comment is disturbing to me, as that is how the lines in the graph appear to me as well.

[rUsHeYaFuBu]

What about LNG?

https://thelensnola.org/2023/07/31/lng-export-terminals-belc...

[trescenzi]

There was also the thing about low sulfur shipping causing a spike in temps? No idea if that’s potentially related or not.

[jemmyw]

It could have caused a small spike but not anywhere near the levels seen. It was momentarily an interesting idea.