[senko]

> 700,000 installs amount to less than 1% of TikTok’s user base.

700k in how much time? RN tops the (Play Store) charts here (EU/Croatia) as well, and anecdotally there's a lot of word of mouth growth. Even though TikTok will not get banned over here.

> It’s unrealistic to think Rednote will replace TikTok.

Possibly, but it does have a foot in the door. It doesn't look like they were ready for western audience so remains to be seen if they can seize on the opportunity.

[csomar]

I am pulling these numbers out of my a* but comparing to the situation in Twitter. People can be enthusiastic to move but if a significant portion doesn't do it in a certain window of time, they'll just drop out of it.

Let's say this portion is around 60% of Tiktok users. So something like 60-70million and window span is 10 days. They need to sustain 6-7 million new US users per day in order to make a successful transition.