[forgotoldacc]

Japan had literacy rates equal to the west during the age of exploration. [1] And when you go back to historical records, Egypt and Mesopotamia had insane good record keeping and were stabler, longer lasting societies than anything else earth has yet seen. They're also in some notably harsh environments compared to the easy living of Europe.

Latin characters really had nothing to do with it. Western society was built off the lessons learned from those two societies. What separates post-printing press western civilization has been the incredibly rapid expansion (which Mongols also achieved with nothing but horses and bows and arrows). But whether this post-printing press civilization will last as long as Ancient Egypt did (3000 years) is yet to be seen. We've got about 2600 years to go.

[1] https://www.jef.or.jp/journal/pdf/unknown_0003.pdf

[Ekaros]

I would argue that Egypt apart from temperature was lot less harsh than Europe. Nile offers water all through the year. And the flooding brought fertilizer each year. Also lot less risk of any type of weather causing famine.

In reality that is lot less harsh than Europe before industrial agriculture. Just looking at list of famines shows that Europe was a harsh place to live for stable society.

[fsloth]

It's also very hard to compare pharaonic Egypt to a modern society since most people were agricultural labourers. You did have not that many people (lets say 3M which was a lot by ancient standards), and of the elite who actually could use capital and talent were really, really scarce. Literacy rates were maybe 1%-15%?

Think what a modern country would look like with 3M people of which 150K can read. It would not be pretty and Egypt was probably worse. Of course if you can control thousands of people you always have some capabilities which is the reason why we adore their art to this day. But I think one should think "North Korea" what pharaonic egypt likely was like rather than "pinnacle of imaginable civilization". This is not to put down the achievements of the egyptian civilization, but like pointed out, they had lots of time.

Most people anywhere (except the pastoralists ofc) were agricultural labourers before modern farming kicked in.

[fsloth]

Exactly.

What makes the capabilities of the current civilization different is a combination of things, some of which are unique this time around.

The major differentiators are 1. Global scale monoculture in knowledge (take engineers from US midwest, Ethiopia, China, Brazil, France, Japan, Finland, Chennai - we all basically can mesh instantly to a product team since tehcnological education is so homogenous). This monoculture was enabled by the printing press and later digital technologies. 2. Insane amount of energy per capita available 3. Amount of capital available including finance

2. and 3. simply were not available before. We can argue all day about merits of education systems of old but you simply did not have this global talent mass on hand. This talent mass is prerequisite so that you can scale capital and technology rapidly on a global scale.

Energy&Capital then feed the machine to give it energy. This machine simply did not exist before. The energy per person in any society was tiny fraction what we can utilize. Similarly for capital.

Japan is excellent example.

a) It demonstrates how long it takes for a society, if it's educated and all around excellent but pre-modern to reach parity with modern societies. I would argue based on facts it's about two generations or 50 years (for Japan) from Perry expedition 1850's to Japan wiping a western industrial nation state fleet to the bottom of the Tsushima straits (1905).

b) It demonstrates this society, when in it's pre-modern configuration lacked things, that it felt necesary to acquire to be able to go head-to-head with societies that had these implemented.

It's this difference between pre-modern,pre-capitalist pre-industrial and modern I'm talking about, why it's false narrative to state "people througout history have been smart and able" as a contradiction why modern societies would be more capable. Because they are. It's not a statement about why some people with different upbringing or genes would be different. That's irrelevant (except up to a point where their upbringing relates to prevalent institutions i.e Acemoglu, "Why nations fail" etc).

I agree we know nothing of how long the current system can last, or will it evolve or devolve. But it's very hard for me to imagine the system going away unless we go full mad max. Because it's not about cultural identity anymore. Who is your king or god. While we live in tumultuous times, Fukuyama was still more or less correct IMO, even though clearly it's not a "end of history" as much as "beginning of new history".

It's about capital, energy, education and markets.