| > good long look at things and the ugliness behind it German strategic thinkers probably saw the obvious before - profitable DE industry = RU gas inputs. DE security = US military and Baltic as buffer. It doesn't much matter for DE bottom line if UKR die if the gas kept flowing. Even if the Poles did the dying. If anything it would keep east euro labour cheap. That was really the optimal setup, the optimal was ugly, but acceptable. Do German's really care if RU slaps around some buffer states if it kept their industries competitive and people wealthy? Of course as Europeans, they do. But we'll see in a few years how they feel as Germans, but current voting patterns hint no and imo GDP going to contract eventually when germans realize being dictated by US who promises (promised?) to protect her neighbours but also jacked up the pipe prices "feels" suboptimal for german prosperity. Germany sipping LNG directly from RU via NS2 even if their neighbours burn is going to "feel" more optimal in retrospect. But realistically/geopolitically, DE continuing RU energy relationship even post war would piss US+co off too much, and US has much more net leverage on US-DE trade surplus than cheap RU gas. Frankly that's a much more difficult/awkward conversation(s) between "friends" to have than if someone made decision on DE behalf by having NS2 mysteriously explode, and everyone not think too hard about it. Saves bickering. Saves face. Regardless, in the military sense F35s is useless for Germany because in world with cheap RU gas access, DE wasn't incentivized to use it against the Russians regardless. Now without RU gas, DE now knows buffer states can hold out against RU, so it's still frankly not optimal procurement vs just dumping that cash into reviving domestic DE MIC. But what ~10 billion dollars of F35s are useful for is ensuring Germany keeps getting US gas, and maintain ~70 billion per year of trade surplus from US, whose going to continue buying overpriced DE cars, since cheap PRC cars will be functionally banned. Likely same deal Korea got for complying with CHIPs. But that was under Biden. No telling what Trump will do with respect to trade imbalance. |