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by kmmlng 521 days ago
It does seem that there are periods and places where things are in equilibrium, or stable. At some point, something typically comes along and disturbs that balance. This can be seen in the fossil record, where you have lots of species going extinct during fairly short periods of time, while there are other times when not much happens.

What people are concerned about is that we, as humans, are the thing that is disturbing the balance at the moment.

3 comments

Things are not stable between the mass extinctions - the mass extinction events are just extreme events of high relevance.

The thing is that Earth is constantly shifting in unpredictable ways. There was an interesting paper recently published working to reconstruct the temperature record of the last 500 million years. [1]

The paper concluded that global mean temperatures varied (over time) in a range from 11c to 36c. We're currently around 15. And temperature is but one of countless variables, most all of which are constantly changing.

This makes longterm equilibriums basically impossible because each time things change, it disrupts the existing balance and there will be new winners and new losers.

[1] - https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk3705

I think the point is that those promoting ecological balance are concerned that humanity itself may be an extreme event of high relevance.
The TV series “All Watched Over by Machines of Loving Grace” talks about how scientists tried to simulate balance in nature with control theory and found that there isn’t much balance at all. The premise that there is balance, despite being very popular, was shown to be false.

I recommend a watch, it is very well-directed too. But here is Wikipedia saying the theory has been discredited if you don’t want to spend the time on the documentary series: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balance_of_nature

Equilibrium truly doesn’t exist in nature. https://willsarvis.medium.com/the-myth-of-balance-in-nature-...