[t-writescode]

Our entire banking system is built on trusting that companies and individuals will keep paying their loans.

If enough people don’t want commercial real estate, then those empty buildings will, at least for businesses, eventually start to default because they have no money.

At least that’s my “off the top of my head” theory.

It doesn’t change the fact that the US’s car-centric, NIMBY, segregated behavior has resulted in a world where in-office work is about as unpleasant as can be and greatly desired against.

[tootie]

Commercial real estate bottomed already. The market isn't going to collapse. Besides they obviously didn't make any similar hedges when it was residential real estate in 2007. Nor does it make sense for them to spend hundreds of millions on real estate so they can not lose money. There is no 4d chess. It's just old people making bad decisions.

[ksec]

>Commercial real estate bottomed already

I think you are under estimating the problem with Commercial real estate, along with rental around the city that has on adjacent Commercial real estate pricing. Which also has a knock on effect on other financial instruments.

The situation wont change or pops the Commercial real estate value to where it was. But it should hopefully buy some time for the market to solve itself. And this isn't just JPM literally eery bank and finance sector are forcing other sector ( other than tech ) to end Remote work.

[bdndndndbve]

There's a good Money Stuff episode about this btw. They talked to someone whose job is to assess commercial properties on behalf of investment funds. There's a lot of obvious tricks that places use to make their occupancy seem better, but the guest's take was that only S-tier malls and office buildings are worth the asking price.

My local B-tier regional mall for instance has about 50% occupancy, and a lot of that is pop-up stores that seem to be entirely transient. They have an anchor Wal Mart, a bank and a mobile phone store, but no other noteworthy tenants. Around the holiday season it felt pretty empty. It's amazing they can afford to operate such a large building under the circumstances.

There's 2-3 other similar malls within a 30 minute drive. All of these malls are still being held by REITs or retirement funds at inflated valuations waiting for a recovery that isn't coming.

[ksec]

>There's 2-3 other similar malls within a 30 minute drive. All of these malls are still being held by REITs or retirement funds at inflated valuations waiting for a recovery that isn't coming.

And this could cause a melt down that could be worst than 2008 housing bubble. May be it is inevitable. But there is still some time to fix it.

There is also the problem with asset valuation as you said that goes to loan and those loan goes to other places, as I said the whole knock on effect on many other areas. And I would not be surprised if Jamie Dimon can smell something is coming.

Basically everyone on HN wants Remote work, and remote work is the future of all work. ( I have on numerous occasion read this on HN and see very little challenges to the claim but up vote only ). If I were to ask between a market crash and Remote work which one would they choose, I am not so sure if everyone is still on Remote work.