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by fhd2
524 days ago
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Programmers don't work in isolation. So I don't know how necessary it would be to quickly adapt your workflows to compete. If there's something that's useful to adopt, there will be a stream of blog posts, coworkers, people at user groups and what not spoon feeding what they learned to others. I don't think there's much cause for FOMO, I don't think it makes a big difference whether you start using a faster way to work a few months earlier or later than others. It can be cheaper to not jump on any hype train and potentially miss out on genuine improvements for a while, than to jump on all the hype trains and waste a lot of time on stuff that goes nowhere. And like you said, if the wildest claims hold true, all programmers are out of a job by the end of 2026 anyway, with all other jobs following over the course of a few years. There's too many variables to predict what would happen in such a scenario, so probably best to deal with it if it happens. So to me, your strategy checks out. I've personally invested some time into code generating and agentic tooling, but ultimately went back to Claude-as-Google-replacement. By my estimation, about a 5-10 % productivity boost compared to my workflow in 2022. The work is about the same, I just learn a bit faster. |
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So much this. AGI is the equivalent of a nuclear apocalypse in many ways—it's unlikely, not unlikely enough for comfort, but also totally not worth preparing for because there's basically no way to predict what preparations would actually be helpful, nor is it obvious that you'd even want to survive it if it happened.
The expected value of prepping for it isn't worth the investment, so it's better to do what most of us already do for nuclear war and pretty much pretend it won't happen.