Recent report says there are 1M paying customers. At ~30USD for 12 months this is ~3.6B of revenue which kinda matches their reported figures. So to break even at their ~5B costs assuming that they need no further major investment in infrastructure they only need to increase the paying subscriptions from 1M to 2M. Since there are ~250M people who engaged with OpenAI free tier service 2x projection doesn't sound too surreal.
If they is true their path to profitability isn't super rocky. Their path to achieving their current valuation may end up being trickier though!