[runako]

> rate of progress in the past two years

This took me down a memory lane:

- Dragon Dictate speed recognition improvement curve in the mid-90s would have led to today's Siri sometime around 1999.

- The first couple of years of Siri & Alexa updates...

- Robots in the '80s led us to believe that home robots would be more or less ubiquitous by now. (Beyond floor cleaners.)

- CMU winning the DARPA Urban challenge for autonomous vehicles was a big fake-out in terms of when AVs would actually land.

Most of the benefits of computing come from relatively small improvements, continuously made over many years & decades. 2-4 years is not enough time to really extrapolate in any computing domain.

> with enough compute

"enough" here could be something that is only measurable on the Kardashev scale.