[uludag]

Wouldn't there be so many more possible futures though? Geopolitical conflict, economic crisis, the clime crisis, civil strife, demographic collapse, the end of globalization, an unexpected black-swan event, etc. Any one of these, even a pandemic, could push back, if not utterly prevent us from reaching these.

Endless growth and technological improvement isn't the only option, and seems to me like the least likely. The other option means that there will be a peak somewhere.

[segasaturn]

Very true and prescient. All of the technological growth of the last two decades has only been possible because of peace and cooperation between the Core Countries, but that world is as its most unstable point in decades and future peace is not guaranteed. As impressive as LLMs can be, a computer still loses to a crude home-made bomb.