[BunsanSpace]

This is the crux of the issue honestly. Trudeau should have had the humility to read the writing on the wall in the fall, and stepped down so we could have a stable government to deal with the incoming US administration and give his party a fighting chance next election.

He could have rested on his laurels knowing history would likely forget his shortcomings & scandals, and be remembered as the prime minister who got us legal weed, navigated the covid pandemic, brought clean drinking water to FN reserves and advanced social programs (childcare, dental care).

Instead he's likely going to be known as the prime minister who had to be forcibly walked to the door by Canadians and his party, while leaving the country in a precarious position during tumultuous times.

[ygjb]

Here's the primary problem with your argument: the current front-runner to win the next election is the Conservative Party of Canada, with Pierre Poilievre as leader, and pretty much a shoo-in for the next Prime Minister.

Poilievre is a career politician who's only professional experience has been as a politician, has no work history to speak of (don't take my word for it, his wikipedia entry details only a job as a collection agent, and that he started a business in 2003 focused on political communications, and then was elected in 2004).

Poilievre has spent the last several years in the lead up to becoming the party leader for the CPC cozying up to the alt-right, supporting the anti-vax movement, and hasn't published any meaningful policy documentation.

Poilievre is basically the last man standing from Stephen Harpers administration (in terms of policies and practices), and has failed to drive or pass any meaningful legislation or policy changes in his 20 year career. His victory in the 2022 CPC leadership campaign was a landslide, but also suffered from allegations of foreign interference from India and China. There is still an outstanding report on foreign interference due on January 31st.

Trudeau's greatest mistake was not implementing the electoral change he campaigned on, which likely would have marked a long term shift toward more left leaning social policies along side centrist fiscal policies, which have typically characterized Canadian society. Unfortunately, unless a very compelling alternative to the CPC emerges in the next 3 months, we will most likely get a government lead by a sock-puppet who lacks any real strength to negotiate with a presumably hostile incoming US administration, and the official party line from other Conservative groups in Canada appears to be appeasement and concession.

It's gonna be a rough couple of years :/

(edited for shoe-in)

[bryanlarsen]

> Trudeau's greatest mistake was not implementing the electoral change he campaigned on

Agreed. In an over-simplification,

- first past the post is the best for the Conservatives. (It was best for the Liberals before the Reform & Conservatives merged).

- single transferable is the best for the Liberals

- mixed-member proportional is the best for the NDP

Trudeau thought the electoral commission would give him the STV he wanted, but it was going to deliver MMP that would pretty much guarantee that he would have to coalition with the NDP. So he nixed it. He ended up with an NDP coalition anyways, so he didn't gain anything through the nixing. Instead FPTP is going to result in a Conservative landslide in 2025.

[kridsdale1]

I voted Liberal in 2015. Because of that betrayal, I never have since or will in future.

[cmrdporcupine]

I wish you and others had just considered the NDP platform which has always supported electoral reform (MMP) and cannabis legalization. Two planks the Liberals "stole" in order to win (and one which they then promptly threw away).

Mulcair was ahead in the polls first half of that election. Trudeau came out of third place to win with his lie about electoral reform and by refusing to answer the question about the religious discrimination laws being introduced in Quebec.

Things could have gone very differently. Mulcair was a much more competent politician than Trudeau, and the NDP platform was more balanced. Though it may have been a challenge for him to assemble a fully competent cabinet.

[ckdarby]

Look at the NDP party this last term for their true colors. A leader who in his own words votes against a no-confidence vote made up of his very own words. Is an equal partner in every decision the liberal government made this term with their coalition.

A wolf in sheep disguise. I didn't want PP to be the next prime minister for comments in parent of the thread, but who else is going to win this running now?

[cmrdporcupine]

I guess I'm not sure how you can fully square the two statements here.

- You don't want PP to be PM

- You're angry at the NDP for not voting to bring Trudeau down (and effectively make PP the PM)

I share your frustration with the NDP under Singh. But I'm not sure what alternative he has, tactically. Voting down the government at this juncture would only have led to an election that would have brought PP to power as PM. Which is notably not in the NDP's interests. (Or, I'd argue, the public's)

But, yes, I understand it tactically. But it's strategically inept. For 4 years the NDP has "won the battle but lost the war" -- all the policy planks they forced the Liberals to adopt will simply be dismantled by the conservatives now.

What they were hoping for is some recognition from the public that the progressive moves made by the Liberals in the last parliament were in fact NDP initiatives forced on them. Instead they're just tarred and feathered with the same image that Trudeau has.

[tlss]

Justin Trudeau was a ski instructor before becoming Prime Minister.

Ronald Reagan and Zelenskyy were ridiculed as an actor in their election campaigns.

Poilievre is a career politician and unproven at the highest office, but that by itself should not disqualify him. Knowing who to delegate to is 90% the job of a good leader -- the other 10% is public speaking and being charismatic.

[ygjb]

Sure, Trudeau was a ski instructor. You will also note that I neglected to mention that Poilievre had a paper route; that's because paper routes aren't professional experience.

Trudeau was also a secondary school teacher, acted in a tv movie. He also reputedly worked as a bouncer and worked in various (heavily politically affiliated) non-profits. He had a career before politics.

That said, my primary point is that Poilievre hasn't been a particularly effective politician, and his reputation is largely that of a blowhard who's main appeal is that he is not Trudeau.

[maxglute]

>main appeal is that he is not Trudeau.

Which is a plus considering how much Trump hates Trudeau.

Poilievre gives off too much Milhouse energy, which I'm not sure if good or bad for obsequiousing.

[canucker2016]

Trudeau also dressed up in black face and brown face. Not many country leaders can claim that...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49763805

[throaway89]

shoo-in*

[cmrdporcupine]

Trudeau should have resigned after getting a second minority government. I mean, actually he should not have run that election at all. But in general in our history, failure to get a majority can be forgiven once... but twice? The knives come out.

I'm amazed at the dominance he has over his party that has made it possible for him still to be hanging on. Even his resignation is slow motion.

[bryanlarsen]

Neither Freeland nor Carney want to be the next Kim Campbell. The Liberals are going to lose the next election badly whether or not Trudeau is leading it. I'm sure that Trudeau made the decision to step down ~6 months ago and is now just playing with the timing to maximum effect. Stepping down now basically pushes the election three months further out than it would otherwise be due to a prorogation to pick a new leader. That gives Pollievre 3 more months worth of rope and Trump time to sabotage Pollievre.

[cmrdporcupine]

Yeah my expectation is this next leadership campaign will be half-assed and "fought" by people who know they will never be PM. Instead they'll expect 4-5 years of PP and somewhere in the middle another leadership campaign that they'll then try to win.

I do think Freeland is too tainted by Trudeau now to be a success. Very intelligent woman, but I think her political career is ending. (I should check back on this comment in 5 years)

[BunsanSpace]

I agree she's tainted which makes her a bad choice to be his successor. But people have short memories and I think in 3-4 years the Trudeau stains will have washed off. In that time she'll have a chance to make a name for herself.

I think if she wanted she could very well be a contender in the next election cycle.