| There are a bunch of usual suspects for the current situation, some that are temporary but others that are very worrisome long term (for the US at least): 1. There was massive over-hiring at many tech companies during the pandemic boom. That hangover is still taking time to wring out. 2. The era of easy money is over. Lots and lots of speculative investments that make sense when interest rates are essentially 0 don't make sense at all when rates are 5+ percent. 3. Outsourcing has exploded since the pandemic, and this is a long term change that is definitely not going away. The remote work trend is a double edged sword. I've worked with lots of great developers in Latin America and Europe (both Eastern and Western Europe) whose salaries are much less than American software developers, and there is plenty of time zone overlap to get lots of collaboration time in. 4. Companies are realizing they can get by with a lot fewer people. Elon may have gone off the deep end with laying off 75% of Twitter, but a lot of places are realizing they can lay off ~20% with no loss of effectiveness, including future bets. In fact, I've seen some business leaders argue (and I agree with them) that the post pandemic downturn has actually provided an opportunity for better focus and less bureaucratic meetings. I.e. cutting some people has allowed them to move faster. 5. AI is having a big impact on at least some roles. Washington Post did an article shortly after ChatGPT came out about how a bunch of copywriters were being replaced by AI. I think AI is generally over hyped, but for roles like marketing, copywriting, recruiting, etc. it's definitely having an impact on jobs. I think #s 3, 4 and 5 are long term trends that are here to stay. |
I have been warning about this over and over and over since the beginning.
If your job can be done remotely, you are effectively unessential in the grand scheme of your company.
Those who went back to the office understood the political landscape well.