[seanmcdirmid]

Ya, I don’t see that lasting very long since China production is too cheap to compete with. They’ve basically taken over the whole illegal drug business here in the USA (opium has never been a very big drug in the states). I don’t really know what China is trying to prove though, is the PLA involved or is it just a few big Tianjin SOE pharmaceuticals?

[tehjoker]

It's not lasting it's over. The US pulled out of Afghanistan in 2021 and the Taliban vastly reduced poppy cultivation. That's what caused a sharp rise in heroin prices and a demand for a substitute.

I haven't looked into fent, but given the information is coming mainly from US security agencies who consider china an enemy state, I need to see physical evidence. I won't accept their say-so. This narrative about China smells suspiciously too perfect. China was the subject of 100 years of humiliation, was drugged to death by Americans, British, and others. Now the US is claiming they're doing it to us? The abuser is suddenly claiming we are the symmetric victim? Fishy story.

[seanmcdirmid]

Great for them. And I guess you are going to tell me China’s fentanyl production and export to the west is in revenge for the opium war that happened in the 19th century?

This has been going on since 2019, fent took over long before the USA left Afghanistan and the Taliban retook control again over poppy production (they were effective at exporting before, so who knows what is going on right now). My guess is that that market doesn’t exist anymore and illicit drugs are controlled by cheap imports of fent from China.

[tehjoker]

Unlikely. If the precursors are being produced in China, it's just capitalism at work. They don't need to do this kind of stuff, their economic growth is double ours. They just need to mind their house and the world will change in their favor.

> My guess is that that market doesn’t exist anymore and illicit drugs are controlled by cheap imports of fent from China.

That's an interesting take.

EDIT: I am reading some reporting on this.

It seems according to mainstream accounts, most fentanyl is allegedly produced in Mexico from Chinese precursors. It is further added that a significant or all of these precursors are difficult to interdict because they are used for making ordinary consumer items.

"Seizing the precursor chemicals that traffickers need is extremely difficult. Many are used to make basic goods, such as medicines, pesticides and soap."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/interactive/20...

So one interpretation could be (requiring a more thorough investigation of the precursors list) that China simply produces ordinary bulk chemicals used for many purposes and sends them to people that buy them.