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by malbertife
5081 days ago
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"Also, look at men vs women. How many wars have women started compared to men? Nearly every war, genocide, and conflict has been caused entirely by men. Why is it that we never see the female versions of Hitler, Gangis Kahn, Napoleon, Stalin, etc... Because evolution has created extremely violent men (not all of us of course)." One thing is to say that a war is unlikely to be started by a woman (your historical observation); another thing is to say that a woman is unlikely to start a war (your claim). That's because, historically, the people in a position to start a war have mostly been men. If W means that a given leader (i.e., someone who could have started a war if he or she wanted to) was a woman and S means that the leader started a war, by Bayes' theorem the probability of the leader having started a war, given that she was a woman, is P(S|W) = P(W|S) P(S) / P(W) Likewise for men (if ~ means negation): P(S|~W) = P(~W|S) P(S) / P(~W) You observed that P(W|S) is much smaller than P(~W|S); but to compare P(S|W) and P(S|~W) you also need to take into account how much smaller P(W) is than P(~W). |
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