[bluekeybox]

Very interesting point, but I'd argue it has different implications to different fields of study. In physics, for example, if ten years from now it turned out that the existence of Higgs boson, in hindsight, was an "obvious" part of a wonderfully intuitive theory, most physicists would be elated and consider it a proof of the strength of their theory. Arguably a different story in social science.

[scott_s]

I'm not sure that analogy works because the Higgs boson was not a surprise. It was predicted by the Standard Model of particle physics. I also worry that you're abusing the word "obvious."