[lispm]

> joining the EU is not the same as joining the Euro

Now, every country joining the EU is expected to join the Euro at some point.

https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/euro/enlargement-euro-a...

"Who can join and when?

All EU Member States, except Denmark, are required to adopt the euro and join the euro area. To do this they must meet certain conditions known as 'convergence criteria'."

[skissane]

> Now, every country joining the EU is expected to join the Euro at some point.

In theory yes, in practice no. The Swedish government has said repeatedly they don't plan to join despite being legally obliged to do so.

EU law says they have to do it, but it also says it can't be done without their active cooperation, and there is no penalty if they refuse to cooperate. The obligation is essentially toothless.

So Denmark having a formal opt-out from the Euro and Sweden not, is really more of a theoretical difference than a practically relevant one.

[lispm]

> The Swedish government has said repeatedly they don't plan to join despite being legally obliged to do so.

Sweden is long in the EU. CURRENTLY the expectation to new member states to join the Euro when joining the EU is different -> much higher.

Sweden was also long not in NATO. Now it is. Similar, support in polls for Euro introduction is rising.

[skissane]

> Sweden is long in the EU. CURRENTLY the expectation to new member states to join the Euro when joining the EU is different -> much higher.

I don't agree. It isn't just Sweden; Poland, Czechia, Hungary, Romania too. The time between EU accession and Euro adoption is normally a decade or more. If a government doesn't want to adopt the Euro, there are heaps of levers they can pull to slow the process down, and there is no way to punish a government for doing that. The easiest is that you have to join ERM II at least two years before adopting the Euro, but nobody can force you to join ERM II – so Sweden, Poland, Czechia, Hungary and Romania have all refused to join it. The only current ERM II members are Denmark (with a formal opt-out), and Bulgaria (which wants to adopt the Euro – it had hoped to do it 1 January 2025, but the ECB says their inflation is too high – 5.1%, the limit is 3.3%). If Bulgaria gets inflation down in 2025, they may succeed in joining on 1 January 2026.

When negotiating to join, the politicians say "sure, we promise we'll adopt the Euro", knowing that they'll likely be retired by the time joining the Euro is a real possibility.

> Sweden was also long not in NATO. Now it is. Similar, support in polls for Euro introduction is rising.

Yes, but that doesn't change the point – an EU member state (present or future) cannot be forced to adopt the Euro, it will only happen if the member state's government is willing, and they'll likely only be willing if it is sufficiently popular with their people.

[lispm]

Currently 20 of 27 EU members have the Euro adopted.

> an EU member state (present or future) cannot be forced to adopt the Euro

Future members can be forced. They won't become EU members, without a clear will to adopt the policies which lead to the Euro.

[skissane]

> Future members can be forced.

Only if they changed the rules to make ERM II membership mandatory and automatic, or if they changed the Euro convergence criteria to remove the need for it. I've heard no talk they are planning to do so.

The non-Euro EU members have a say in the enlargement negotiation process too, and they don’t want new members to be forced into Euro adoption - it might weaken their own ability to resist that pressure in the future, plus additional non-Euro EU members are a potential source of new internal allies

> They won't become EU members, without a clear will to adopt the policies which lead to the Euro.

The government that negotiates to join the EU may do all they can to convince the EU that they want to join the Euro – they might even really mean it. Then, after accession, that government loses an election and get replaced by a new government which is anti-Euro. What can the EU do to stop that? Nothing.