[esperent]

There's a second 2024 thread here:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38614465

Reading through the two 2024 threads I'm struck that most predictions a) were completely wrong b) reflected more what people wanted to happen rather than what was likely.

Edit: now that I've read through this thread I'll add c) were much more hopeful than this year's predictions.

[wenc]

This is mostly just for fun and will be mostly wrong because none of the people who are making predictions take it seriously. And none of the upvoters take it seriously either.

There is a discipline to making predictions (Phil Tetlock has observed a few traits: avoiding base rate fallacies, working in probabilities not binaries, making falsifiable predictions, and continuously updating).

None of the predictions here do that, so we shouldn’t expect any kind of reasonable hit rate.

It’s just end of year fun.

[locallost]

It reflects the mood, which tells me all I need to know about things like short term stock changes. In reality nobody can predict the future. My predictions have historically also been way off, but what is surprising to me is that people don't reflect on their misses. For the most part I've given up in predicting anything, at best I will look at trends and see if there's something there or not.

But with that said I will now post my predictions for 2025 :-).

[WA]

Post your portfolio alongside please :)

[EFreethought]

> reflected more what people wanted to happen rather than what was likely.

I think that is true of most predictions.