[bloppe]

Other important quotes: "o3 still fails on some very easy tasks, indicating fundamental differences with human intelligence. Furthermore, early data points suggest that the upcoming ARC-AGI-2 benchmark will still pose a significant challenge to o3, potentially reducing its score to under 30% even at high compute (while a smart human would still be able to score over 95% with no training)."

So ya, working on efficiency is important, but we're still pretty far away from AGI even ignoring efficiency. We need an actual breakthrough, which I believe will not be possible by simply scaling the transformer architecture.

[ksec]

Thank You. That alone suggest we could throw another 100X compute and we still wont be close to average human which is something close to 70-80%.

So combined together we are currently at least 10^5 in terms of cost efficiency. In reality I wont be surprised if we are closer to 10^6.