First-time home buyers are getting squeezed by a combination of peaking market forces, but those forces are peaking and we're probably seeing the worst of it at this moment [1]. It will get better.
Their arguments for "won't go up much" are reasonable but their arguments for "will actually fall enough to allow two generations to finally own homes" are pretty fucking nonsensical.
They're comparing to hosting dips in the world wars and while I assure you ww3 will have enough loss of life to make houses quite cheap a third time, you still won't want them because they'll be covered in radioactive contamination.
The issue isn't blind supply and demand, it's that we've made construction expensive through code and arbitrary supply chain constraints and we're planning to deport all the construction workers. Even if population grown naturally slows to zero we will simply stop building houses because it won't be profitable. That's what got us here in the first place.
I quite like the parts of the code that prevent random electric shocks, and the parts that keep the roof from caving in, etc. (I assume you meant building codes)
The forthcoming mass deportation will definitely fuck shit up though. UK is having a similar issue due to Brexit. I guess Eastern Europeans are to the UK, as Mexicans/etc. are to the US?
I didn't want to get into a huge aside so I just left it there but imo the NEC et al are absolutely great. In a lot of ways current building standards actually make things easier and cheaper, they remove ambiguity and offer a set of best practices that are time tested to reduce labor and errors.
The issue is how local municipalities enforce it along with zoning to make building massively more bureaucratic. Reaching the right people is impossible, everyone has their own agenda and interpretation, and city councils across the country add arbitrary stipulations entirely to reduce construction so line goes up.
They're comparing to hosting dips in the world wars and while I assure you ww3 will have enough loss of life to make houses quite cheap a third time, you still won't want them because they'll be covered in radioactive contamination.
The issue isn't blind supply and demand, it's that we've made construction expensive through code and arbitrary supply chain constraints and we're planning to deport all the construction workers. Even if population grown naturally slows to zero we will simply stop building houses because it won't be profitable. That's what got us here in the first place.