More of gen z are home owners than previous generations at that age[0], real wages are increasing for the lower and middle class for the first time since 1970[1]. More people are leaving the workforce than anytime in history, creating high paying trade job openings at an unprecedented rate[2]. Health care costs are growing slower now than any prior decade[3].
Every generation has challenges and benefits. Framing the narrative can happen in any direction and the variance in group is bigger than the variance between.
> More of gen z are home owners than previous generations at that age[0]
If you’re going to make a claim this bold and this counter to the prevailing narrative, you’re gonna need to cite a better source than an outbrain-riddled webpage that tells me to “watch our video to find the lede we buried”. I’m not saying this isn’t true, but extraordinary claims require good sourcing and explanation.
> If you’re going to make a claim this bold and this counter to the prevailing narrative
What do you see as the prevailing narrative? The one I see is homeownership itself, which suggests that homeownership has been seen as being hotly desirable. I strongly suspect we wouldn't have a homeownership narrative to speak of if ownership was unwanted. When something becomes unusually desirable like homeownership has, it is not unexpected to see an uptick in participation around it; in this case owning a home. Much of the urban age has been marked with the majority of the population being renters. Everyone wanting to own a home with such furor is historically unusual.
I expect homeownership has become so desirable as it has become seen as a way to build wealth. While, historically, housing only kept pace with inflation at best, real home values have risen by unfathomable amounts in the last decade or two. Which, again, attracts people willing to risk it all for a chance at some of that wealth opportunity. It would be unusual if said generational group had comparatively lower ownership rates given the "FOMO" aspect. People run away when prices are falling, not when they are rising.
Given the market we've watched, the extraordinary claim would be that Gen-Z has lower ownership rates compared to previous generations at the same age.
Well said. I remember making a spreadsheet in maybe 1995 laying out the math to compare the real costs and expected gains from buying vs. renting.
It mathed out about even. I decided to go with renting instead of buying, with the logic that the S&P didn’t need me to buy it a new roof every 15 years or to work in its garden every weekend.
It worked nicely too, growing the money that would otherwise have gone into mortgages and property tax, letting me take some of it out recently and buy a house with cash.
I don’t see much of this attitude in my younger friends now. But living cheap and saving does actually work.
A retirement account is a ship in a bottle. You can't put much into it. The only way to make it huge is to take huge risks inside and have them work out. Which isn't a plan.
And -- options? The most leverage I can think of reasonably getting would be LEAPS (calls) and rolling them. But, even with LEAPS, you have limited timing flexibility, and are forced to realize more gains/losses.
There's nothing on par with a house. They're almost $1M everywhere now. You can't get that much into a retirement account when you're young.
A 5x levered bet with no prepayment penalty subsidized by future Americans, and it cannot be called and is non recourse in many states. And it provides shelter.
The claim isn’t that homeownership is undesirable to Gen Z, but that a lower percentage of Gen Z owns homes compared to previous generations regardless of the specific reason. I think in this case the most likely cause is the increase in prices is causing houses to be unaffordable to Gen Z, despite their desire to own houses.
There may be some temporal confusion here. Gen-Z rates of homeownership has stalled out over the past year or so. Prices are no longer rising like they once were, with fears over impending decline, so the desire is not what it once was. It may be fair to say that the narrative has shifted to "too expensive", but as they loaded up early when prices were rising at unprecedented rates there is a big head start at play. They don't have to buy any more homes for a while to maintain the lead.
Regarding home ownership: they only started with a higher rate. It's too early to say, but considering that growth has stagnated, they're on track to become the generation that will own the least homes.
[0] in the parent comment needs to note most of the increase comes from older people living and staying in their houses longer rather than dying, moving to facilities or in with family.
> Health care costs are growing slower now than any prior decade[3].
I don’t see any data on that page supporting this claim. The current decade is growing much faster than the previous one, and they only show data up to 2023.
> Health spending increased by 7.5% from 2022 to 2023, faster than the 4.6% increase from 2021 to 2022. The growth in total health spending from 2022 to 2023 is well above the average annual growth rate of the 2010s (4.1%).
If you’re going to make a claim this bold and this counter to the prevailing narrative, you’re gonna need to cite a better source than an outbrain-riddled webpage that tells me to “watch our video to find the lede we buried”. I’m not saying this isn’t true, but extraordinary claims require good sourcing and explanation.