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by whynotminot 552 days ago
Sure, AGI hasn’t been solved today.

But what they’ve done is show that progress isn’t slowing down. In fact, it looks like things are accelerating.

So sure, we’ll be splitting hairs for a while about when we reach AGI. But the point is that just yesterday people were still talking about a plateau.
1 comments
peepeepoopoo97 552 days ago
About 10,000 times the cost for twice the performance sure looks like progress is slowing to me.
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whynotminot 552 days ago
Just to be clear — your position is that the cost of inference for o3 will not go down over time (which would be the first time that has happened for any of these models).
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peepeepoopoo97 552 days ago
Even if compute costs drop by 10X a year (which seems like a gross overestimate IMO), you're still looking at 1000X the cost for a 2X annual performance gain. Costs outpacing progress is the very definition of diminishing returns.
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whynotminot 552 days ago
From their charts, o3 mini outperforms o1 using less energy. I don’t see the diminishing returns you’re talking about. Improvement outpacing cost. By your logic, perhaps the very definition of progress?

You can also use the full o3 model, consume insane power, and get insane results. Sure, it will probably take longer to drive down those costs.

You’re welcome to bet against them succeeding at that. I won’t be.

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