[azeirah]

I'd like to see this o3 thing play 5d chess with multiverse time travel or baba is you.

The only effect smarter models will have is that intelligent people will have to use less of their brain to do their work. As has always been the case, the medium is the message, and climate change is one of the most difficult and worst problems of our time.

If this gets software people to quit en-masse and start working in energy, biology, ecology and preservation? Then it has succeeded.

[concordDance]

> climate change is one of the most difficult and worst problems of our time.

Slightly surprised to see this view here.

I can think of half a dozen more serious problems off hand (e.g. population aging, institutional scar tissue, dysgenics, nuclear proliferation, pandemic risks, AI itself) along most axes I can think of (raw $ cost, QALYs, even X-risk).

[TranquilMarmot]

None of those problems really matter if we don't have a planet to live on

[concordDance]

You've been greviously mislead if you think climate change could plausibly make the world uninhabbitable in the next couple of centuries given current trajectories. I advise going to the primary sources and emailing a climate scientist at your local university for some references.

[TranquilMarmot]

> going to the primary sources and emailing a climate scientist at your local university for some references

I assume you've done this, otherwise you wouldn't be telling me to? Bold of you to assume my ignorance on this subject. You sound like you've fallen for corporate grifters who care more about short-term profit and gains over long-term sustainability (or you are one of said grifters, in which case why are you wasting your time on HN, shouldn't you be out there grinding?!)

Severe weather events are going to get more common and more devastating over the next couple of decades. They'll come for you and people you care about, just as they come for me and people I care about. It doesn't matter what you think you know about it.

[concordDance]

I've read some climate papers but haven't done the email thing (I should, but have not).

The IPCC summaries are a good read too.

Do you genuinely think severe weather events are going to be even amongst the top ten killers this century? If so, I do strongly advise emailing local uni climate scientist. (What's the worst that can happen? Heck, they might confirm your views!)

(In other circumstances I might go through the whole "what have you observed that has given you this belief?" thing, but in this case there is a simple and reliable check in the form of a 5 minute email)

... actually, I can do so on your behalf... would you like me to? The specific questions I would be asking unless told otherwise would be:

1. Probability of human extinction in the next century due to climate change. 2. Probability of more than 10% of human deaths being due to extreme weather. 3. Places to find good unbiased summaries of the likely effects of climate change.

Any others?

[azeirah]

Please do! I would love for you to do this.

Would you be so kind to ask

1. Do you think a tornado has real probability of forming in north-western Europe, where historically there has never been one before? And what do you think are the chances of it being destructive in ways before unseen? (Think Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, ...)

2. How are the attractors (chaos theory) changing? Is it correct to say that, no, our weather prediction models are not going to be more accurate, all we can say is that weather is going to _change_ in all extremes? More intense storms. Colder winters. Hotter summers. Drier droughts.

3. What institution predicted the floods in Spain? Did anyone? Or was this completely unprecedented and a complete surprise?

I think these are my primary questions for now.

[TranquilMarmot]

I don't think that humans will go extinct from climate change, but it will drastically change where we can comfortably live and will uproot our ability to make meaningful cultural and scientific progress.

In your comment above you mention: > e.g. population aging, institutional scar tissue, dysgenics, nuclear proliferation, pandemic risks, AI itself

These are all intertwined with each other and with climate change. People are less likely to have kids if they don't think those kids will have a comfortable future. Nuclear war is more likely if countries are competing for less and less resources as we deplete the planet and need to increase food production. Habitat loss from deforestation leads to animals comingling where they normally wouldn't, leading to increased risk of disease spillover into humans.

You claim that somebody saying "climate change is one of the most difficult and worst problems of our time" is a take you're surprised to see here on HN, but I'm more surprised that you don't list it in what you consider important problems.