[prmph]

They've been promising us this thing since the 60s: End-user development, 5GLs, etc. enabling the average Joe to develop sophisticated apps in minimal time. And it never arrives.

I remember attending a tech fair decades ago, and at one stand they were vending some database products. When I mentioned that I was studying computer science with a focus on software engineering, they sneered that coding will be much less important in the future since powerful databases will minimize the need for a lot of data wrangling in applications with algorithms.

What actually happened is that the demand for programmers increased, and software ate the world. I suspect something similar will happen the current AI hype.

[whynotminot]

> They've been promising us this thing since the 60s: End-user development, 5GLs, etc. enabling the average Joe to develop sophisticated apps in minimal time. And it never arrives.

This has literally already arrived. Average Joes are writing software using LLMs right now.

[arrosenberg]

Source? Which software products are built without engineers?

[Jensson]

Personal websites etc, you don't think about them as software products since they weren't built by engineers, but 30 years ago you needed engineers to build those things.

[arrosenberg]

Ok, well I’m not going to worry about my job then. 25 years ago GeoCities existed and you didn’t need an engineer. 10 year old me was writing functional HTML, definitely not an engineer at that point.

[whynotminot]

To be honest maybe no one should worry.

If AI truly overtakes knowledge work there’s not much we could reasonably do to prepare for it.

If AI never gets there though, then you saved yourself the trouble of stressing about it. So sure, relax, it’s just the second coming of GeoCities.

[hatefulmoron]

I think the fear comes from the span of time. If my job is obsolete at the same time as everybody else's, I wouldn't care. I mean, sure, the world is in for a very tough time, but I would be in good company.

The really bad situation is if my entire skill set is made obsolete while the rest of the world keeps going for a decade or two. Or maybe longer, who knows.

I realize I'm coming across quite selfish, but it's just a feeling.

[vouaobrasil]

Well, I think in the 60s we also didn't have LLMs that could actually write complete programs, either.

[mirsadm]

No one writes a "complete program" these days. Things just keep evolving forever. I spent way too much time I care to admit dealing with dependencies of libraries which change seemingly on a daily basis these days. These predictions are so far off reality it makes me wonder if the people making them have ever written any code in their life.

[vouaobrasil]

That's fair. Well, I've written a lot of code. But anyway, I do want to emphasize the following. I am not making the same prediction as some that say AI can replace a programmer. Instead, I am saying: combination of AI plus programmers will reduce the need for the number or programmers, and hence allow the software industry to exist with far fewer people, with the lucky ones accumulating even more wealth.