[wjnc]

Back in the day I had my running PB’s and current times in an Excel (financial ey) comparing them with the line of the world records. Worked pretty spot on. Better 5k leads to a proportional gain on the longer runs. Never beat the 50% slower mark on any of my times. Nowadays with VO2-max, HRV and other measures personal predictions must be getting easier. Although my Garmin watch thinks I’m world class VO2-max, which is a joke.

[qmatch]

What did the line represent? It’s always surprising how predictable it is to estimate people’s race times given what you know about their fitness. That said, about 10% of the time someone surprises you with a time you wouldn’t expect.

[wjnc]

I was working under the hypothesis that my fitness would generally predict my performance when compared to the world record. Turns out for +50% of the worlds top speeds, this works pretty well. New hypothesis would be that specialization occurs way below +50% of the worlds speediest.

[tmulc]

My Garmin times are also a joke, which is why I created getfast! (To be clear though, Garmin makes incredible watches, and their predictions have gotten a lot better in the past year . . .)