[baal80spam]

> In any case, I am sure that in a generation or two after Blackwell, Nvidia will have some other bright idea for changing the paradigm and its competition will lag behind in adopting it.

This is the most important point. Everyone seems to think that Nvidia just rests on its laurels while everyone and their dog tries to catch up with it. This is just not how (good) business works.

[Jlagreen]

Nvidia once rested on their laurels and that was the Geforce FX over 20 years ago. Jensen was so pissed, he literally screamed at every person in the company.

But he also made sure that resting won't ever happen again. Andy Grove from Intel once said that only the paranoid survive and I bet Jensen is the most paranoid CEO alive. You won't see him in public that way because Jensen in public is Nvidia marketeer.

Nvidia has also understood early on how important marketing and brand recognition is. They learned it the hard way with the utter failure of their first chip the NV1 which was a technological master piece which no one wanted. Witht the bad GeForce FX Nvidia even made marketing videos to make fun of themselves and that helped. ATI didn't crush Nvidia as much as expeceted because of such activities despite having the ultra superior Radeon 9700/9800 series back then.

[xnx]

Nvidia has been very smart to be well prepared, but the emergency of Bitcoin and AI were two huge bits of good luck for them. It's very unlikely that there is another once-in-a-lifetime event that will also benefit Nvidia in that way. Nvidia will be successful in the future, but it will be through more normal, smart business, means.

[ryao]

Those are both computational challenges. Nvidia is well positioned for those due to their push into HPC with GPGPU. If there is another “once-in-a-lifetime” computational challenge, it will likely benefit Nvidia too.

[quesera]

I would never bet against the market finding a use for higher performance products.

~"Good fortune favors those who are prepared to take advantage of it", etc.