[padolsey]

>exceptionally smart at making predictions

Is anyone though? Genuine question. I don't have much faith in predictions anymore.

[qeternity]

No, very few for things with this much uncertainty.

Most of it is survivorship bias: if you have a million people all making predictions with coin flip accuracy, somebody is going to get a seemingly improbable number correct.

[ethbr1]

Predictions predicated on technological advancement are tricky: there's a reason breakthroughs are called breakthroughs.

[exe34]

so your prediction is that most predictions will be wrong?

[bobbruno]

A common saying in the stats field goes like this:

"Predictions are hard, especially about the future".