[tedsanders]

I'd bet that the first room temperature superconductor does not "change the world immensely."

Resistive losses are just one of very many attributes of a conductor. Others important attributes include:

- current capacity (will you need humongously thick wires to match charge carried by aluminum or copper?)

- ductility (can it be formed into wires cheaply?)

- cost (does CapEx outweigh electricity savings? is it expensive enough that people will cut and steal it?)

- weight (can it hang from power poles? can it be transported on the backs of trucks?)

- temperature sensitivity (does it crack at low temperature? melt at high temperature? change electrical properties depending on the weather? stop conducting on hot days?)

- chemical stability (will it oxidize over a 50-year lifecycle?)

- toxicity (will kids be poisoned if they touch it / eat it?)

- machinability (can it be formed into tiny wires? can it be patterned onto chips?)

- electromigration resistance (will the material break down over time from carrying charge?)

- tensile strength (can it be hung from power poles at their current spacing? would we need to rip out all power poles across the planet? would we need more expensive underground lines?)

- abundance in the Earth's crust (will the price skyrocket if we suddenly need to produce an annual megaton to replace the world's powerlines?)

- geographic concentration (are the primary deposits concentrated in a single country, introducing potential supply chain and geosecurity risks?)

- etc.

It's very likely that the first material which does better on resistivity is going to do worse on these other dimensions. Resistivity is rarely the number one criterion in selecting conductors, from power lines to computer chips.

One of the reason incumbent technologies are difficult to replace is that they win on criteria that are less salient to potential innovators. Aluminum is a common metal for power lines not because it has the lowest resistivity, but because it's by far the best we've got when evaluating this whole portfolio of needs.

[skeaker]

I think even if it's only usable in niche scenarios it would still be a commercial success. Superconductors are useful even when they're hard to use, as seen with existing cold temperature superconductors which a room temperature one could certainly replace and become a commercial success in doing so. With that said, you're likely correct that the first attempt won't catch on for mass adoption.

[zardo]

> as seen with existing cold temperature superconductors which a room temperature one could certainly replace and become a commercial success in doing so.

High temperature superconductors are only seeing commercial use in the last few years (after their discovery in the 80s) due to issues like poor ductility.

[SequoiaHope]

Well lots of these limit the applications but something could have these limitations and still be a commercial success in some valuable niche fields.

[ethbr1]

Electromagnets.