[CamperBob2]

Also, any line of inquiry that applies probabilistic arguments to evolution-based questions is already off in the weeds. The brains in our bodies didn't arise as a result of pure random organization, but developed incrementally in a direction that maximized reproductive fitness. There is no reason to think that brains appearing in isolated space at random, complete with memories, would ever be a thing.

So it's simply not meaningful to ask about the relative odds of these two positions.

[empath75]

> There is no reason to think that brains appearing in isolated space at random, complete with memories, would ever be a thing.

There are only a limited amount of physical states possible in a given volume and given an infinite amount of time and space, all of them will happen an infinite amount of times.

[roenxi]

That logic doesn't exactly hold. Consider Gardens of Eden in Game of Life [0]. We can suspect that reality is similar to GoL where there is an infinite space and time that evolves according to some ruleset. In that case it is plausible that there are conceivable states that will, nonetheless, not be assumed even if there are an infinite set of possible states that reality will assume and infinite time to explore them all.

[0] https://conwaylife.com/wiki/Garden_of_Eden

[wutwutwat]

I disagree. I once had someone say that if you were to smash an iphone into tiny tiny pieces and put it into a plastic bag and shake it, given enough time, it would reassemble itself into a working iphone, the pieces randomly ending up where they need to be in order to operate like it did originally.

While it is technically possible for that to happen, the probability of the intricacies that make up the iphone's circuits and screen, the chemicals that make up the battery, etc, assembling themselves into a complete and working phone, even on an infinite timeline, is not that high. And it could, in theory, never actually happen, since if there is still time that you can move forward into, there's still the chance that the moment the iphone assembles itself into a working phone lies somewhere in the future, and always will. It could just never happen before the heat death of the universe.

Possibility does not guarantee probability.

[empath75]

> While it is technically possible for that to happen, the probability of the intricacies that make up the iphone's circuits and screen, the chemicals that make up the battery, etc, assembling themselves into a complete and working phone, even on an infinite timeline, is not that high.

"Infinity" is not the same thing as a "really long time". You can't use ordinary conceptions of probabilities on infinite time scales. If you wait a Graham's number of years, you still haven't even started a small fraction on the way to infinity.

[kstrauser]

I'm not sure. Quantum tunneling is a thing. Given the possibility of particles deciding to spontaneously just up and teleport to a nearby location, the available options increase significantly.

[wutwutwat]

> particles deciding to spontaneously just up and teleport to a nearby location

that all but guarantees that it would never happen imo... and also shows that we have no clue how the universe actually works, and likely never will

[TheGrassyKnoll]

Eternity is a LOT of time...

[psd1]

Actually no, it's -1/12 of a second