[zamadatix]

It's easy to say ${new_thing} is going to take off (takes a while to be disproven), it's even easier to say ${new_thing} _isn't_ going to take off (takes a while to be disproven and most things don't take off), but it's hardest to actually have a clue when you're talking about something which changes life forever (like the internet), a curiosity [for now] (like Google Glass), or just a scam from the ground up (pick a scammy cryptocoin) immediately when you see it.

[tialaramex]

The Internet is "just" the third Network. Both its predecessors (the Universal Postal Union and the Public Switched Telephone Network) are still hugely important, it's amazing that people don't understand the significance until it's shoved in their faces as a result of Tim's mediocre hypermedia software (the "World Wide Web") and even there are plenty of nay-sayers for years.

The Network is a big deal, as big a deal as say, pornography or literacy. But while iterations of the Network are significant they're also sort of predictable. A society which builds the PSTN is going to build something akin to the Internet next.

[hamasho]

I agree both are easy to say, but IMO ${new_thing}s fail like 80% of time and, even it succeeds, take much longer time to find its useful usages and it's much narrower than we expected at first. So I think it's better to have skeptical or pessimistic attitudes toward ${new_thing}s by default. BTW I'm impressed by LLMs for some tasks and it makes my job easier, but still feel it's useless for majority of my daily tasks.

[akira2501]

> it's even easier to say ${new_thing} _isn't_ going to take off

Not around here it isn't.

> but it's hardest to actually have a clue when you're talking about something which changes life forever

Most of us saw the Internet coming from a decade away, Google Glass was never going to be a thing, and once cryptocurrency "mixers" got invented everyone saw the writing on the wall.

[zamadatix]

> Not around here it isn't.

Then why is this the top thread on the post?

> Most of us saw the Internet coming from a decade away

If that was true as we'd like to believe for most of us HN would be more of a retirement community than a startup community. You can blend a bit of how everyone knew which parts of the internet were scams and how that wasn't all there was to it in that as well.

Everything seems obvious in retrospect, down to how "obviously it was only going to explode larger after the dot com boom" or "getting into ads would be the way the most money was made". All of the areas that failed or were different than expected get forgotten. And most importantly...

> Google Glass was never going to be a thing

Given many years a lot of things end up working out in ways that weren't really expected but are, retrospectively, "obvious from a decade away". Much of the time this doesn't even require new technology of the day, though it may be better with the advances. Will that be a Google Glass style thing? I doubt it personally... but I can also manage to temper that with my certainty not being absolute.

[yunwal]

> If that was true as we'd like to believe for most of us HN would be more of a retirement community than a startup community.

There’s a difference between saying “something like this will exist” (internet, cryptocurrency) and “this particular implementation will win the market” (www stock picks, coins). People here saying crypto isn’t going to take off (as a currency) mean the whole concept, not just one particular implementation.

[akira2501]

> Then why is this the top thread on the post?

Do you have anything other than a single counter example?

> for most of us HN would be more of a retirement community than a startup community.

What data have you seen that makes you believe it isn't? What makes you think it's a "startup community?" You're also forgetting just how long it takes for new technology to penetrate and how often it gets _integrated_ with what already existed. Merely seeing that this would occur did not magically create new opportunities. Not all technologies are transformative as you suggest.

I mean it was obvious that people would eventually order pizza using the Internet. That didn't mean you could run out and start an Internet enabled pizza business and then cash out.

> but I can also manage to temper that with my certainty not being absolute.

Battery life, weight, and connectivity were _obvious_ issues. If you think like an engineer rather than a temporarily embarrassed venture capitalist you might find that confidence very easily.