[hnlmorg]

Nearly every example of futurism I’ve seen in my 40+ years of looking at future technology has been people over accounting for scaling rather than ignoring it.

For example they see a prototype and then assume in 10 years everyone will have one.

Or they look at a proof of concept and don’t realise that that last 10% of refinement actually takes 90% of the effort.

What people usually miss is that scaling is the problem, not the solution. Prototypes are easy in comparison.

[ethbr1]

The quip that stuck in my head (Kurzweil?) is that adoption is based on utility over existing practice.

Hence why cell phone took off (verse land lines) but flying cars didn't (verse ground cars).

Adding basic level creativity to automation seems like the former.

It's not going to change everything overnight, but it is going to impact everything into a new normal.