| Such ANGER. The Internet says 50% of US buyers are identified democrats, YMMV for internet stats. That number doesn't seem stupid -- EVs are progressive, environmentalist, anti-establishment. Tesla's stock is a huge bubble. It's worth the next 10 car companies combined! Yes there's a ton of AI speculation in there, but fundamentally the company's stock is about geometric growth in sales. The most important customer to a car company is their current ones, since those have a very high chance of being loyal to the brand when they buy again. Tesla is a company that does almost no advertising. Maybe that's because the press gives them enough hype, but I suspect there is a huge degree of passionate advocacy. I should know, I ... was ... a strong advocate for Tesla. I still am for EVs, but they were one and the same with Tesla for 20 years. A subtle thing happened with the Tesla owners I know. They went from advocating for their car, to rationalizing it, within the span of six months. I don't think it is a stretch to say that Tesla owners were passionate advocates for their vehicles. All progressive, environmentalist people I know are now hell-nos. Point is, Tesla is stock bubble. Their sales are already down this year, and I'm picking up the popcorn to see what happens in Q3/Q4. The trade war will probably make Tesla a noncompetitive product in China. So US sales are going to get MORE important, not less. People are actively selling their Teslas. Sure, it's on the used market, what does that matter? I don't have stats, but how many sales of new Teslas will a robust used market (which also has Hertz dumping cars onto the market) cannibalize? I'd say each used Tesla is half of a new one. Point is, I don't see Tesla as a stock that can rationalize bad sales. They don't have a brand-spanking new car for a new mass market: the Cybertruck is explicitly a miss from the pickup truck market. The Semi still can't seem to scale production. The robotaxi is, face it, two years away and a fundamental leap in AI from working. Trump is going to be on television reminding every democrat who helped him vocally, publicly, monetarily, possibly illegally get him in office, and will join an agency that will target progressive government systematically and with high visibility. All it takes is, what, 1/3 of the 50% democrats of their potential customer base to say "hell no" and that's ... 16% drop in sales. Ever seen a company lose 16% of sales? Good luck with that stock, folks. |