[rootusrootus]

Agreed. Tesla fans are so enamored with Elon that there isn’t really going to be anything that changes their mind. The vast majority of people I’ve talked to who said they won’t buy a Tesla because of him are not EV owners at all. Just democrats.

[AtlasBarfed]

Once you get past the passionate technologist crowd, and there have been signs the initial buyer pool for Tesla was already stagnating a bit in 2023, who are the next natural candidates for buyers?

The mass market is 1/3 right wing, 1/3 left wing, 1/3 centrist roughly.

The 1/3 right wing are the pickup truck buyers. Like a rock ... Strong as I can be.

The 1/3 left wing is now pretty much a no.

The 1/3 centrist is probably price driven. Tesla is still too expensive for them, and if they want a Tesla, I would say they are buying a used one.

Tesla has two cars: a sedan, a crossover, in small and medium. They don't have real pickups, work trucks, station wagons, sports cars, roadsters, delivery vans, real SUVs, city cars/kei cars, or minivans. The cybertruck is a sideshow, the robotaxi is years away given Tesla's roadmap with mundane manufacturing scaling, to say nothing of the AI advance it requires and the alien nature of it to the larger buying public.

Tesla failed to utilize its name brand in ebikes, motorcycles, scooters, or even other battery/motor devices like hand tools, lawn tools, snowblowers, riding mowers. Obviously no heavy equipment aside from some pilot Semis. No RVs.

The Solar business is meh. The grid business likely will be outcompeted by sodium ion/lfp/other schemes. Home storage is slow uptake, and again they'll probably be outcompeted in price.

Tesla has no more tech advantage. Their EV drivetrain may be a percent or two more efficient, but likely not enough to matter. NMC cylindrical cells are about to be economically noncompetitive with 150 wh/kg sodium ion and 200-225 wh/kg LFP, and denser stuff is on the 3 year roadmap. The battery day 4680 tech is basically undelivered or won't scale.

I just don't see the growth path for this company anymore barring miraculous AI combined with miraculous execution combined with miraculous domestic battery supply. About the only thing I can see floating the company it terms of real sales figures would be the Semi, but it sure looks like a soft launch to me that is still a year away, and something that will need either sulfur chemistries, solid state, or dirt cheap high density LFP/Sodium Ion to be economically viable.

[ninalanyon]

I think Tesla has probably missed the boat on the semi, at least in Europe.

Scania has already delivered plenty of heavy goods EVs here in Norway. Delivery companies like the Post office, DHL, ASKO are investing heavily in large EVs but most of that is going to either Swedish Scania. Chinese SAIC is also selling well for urban delivery vehicles.

Scania sell electric articulated lorries with gross trailer weight up to 75 tonne. The range at 64 tonne is 375 km. https://www.scania.com/no/no/home/products/trucks/battery-el...

[mapt]

Tesla still has a great many advantages.

Their problem is that their valuation had the market predicting that they would generate a MAJORITY of all profit in US automotive manufacturing - they were worth more than every other player combined. This was grossly unrealistic. So expect a down round. Whether they survive that drop to... What... 5-10% of their former value? Depends on what sort of explicit and implicit dental they have accrued to scale.

[mapt]

*"Debts" + Android Autocorrect, ladies and gentlemen

[iknowstuff]

Tesla is likely quite happy to install lfp/sodium megapacks.

Self driving is in fact the growth plan. You’re not paying attention if you’re calling it miraculous, which is fine, more money for investors.

[caycep]

Have they already lost in battery tech to CATL?

[NotSammyHagar]

Tesla was using CATL batteries in part. Tesla uses different batteries in diff cars, also some come from China, some other places.

Tesla said they'd have amazing new 4680 batteries but that didn't really succeed, a reason why the ct has lower range than planned is the new higher density batteries didn't arrive.

Tesla has one advantage left, they can make their cars at mass quantities and make a profit. Most of the western auto companies can't do that, unless they charge very high prices.

[natch]

You should short the stock, then.