[autoexec]

Did tiktok convince 20% of the voters to vote for a racist, or did they trick 20% into unwittingly voting for a racist? Hopefully now that everyone is talking about him and his affection for religious fascism a lot of those voters will realize what they voted for and change their vote in the future.

[poloniculmov]

His campaign messages weren't outright extremist, just your casual populism, impossible promises and a dash of dogwhistles. Once he won the first round of elections, people really started to look into his past and it's pretty insane.

[RealityVoid]

I think he is legitimately insane. He fits schizotypal personality disorder to a T. Multiple psychologists told me he fits.

[H8crilA]

They voted for him because he speaks pretty well for a politician. Also some of his messages really land - consider that Ukraine is losing (very very slowly, and can still win), so it makes sense to talk to both sides since it's unclear who will be calling shots in the region. Moldova is definitely next, right after Ukraine, and it cannot defend itself even from one mechanized brigade.

[cbg0]

His messaging regarding Ukraine was not something that positively affected his campaign, on the contrary it ignited political opponents over his anti-NATO views.

His campaign landed better because of his palatable way of speaking and saying a lot without saying anything, as most people that voted for him were not really aware of his positions on any serious subject.

[RealityVoid]

Yes, I said multiple times he was Schrodinger's candidate, he could hold multiple mutually contradictory positions at the same time. Pretty ridiculous.

[quickthrowman]

Romania is a member of NATO, they don’t need to give two shits about Russia being a regional power because they will not be invaded by Russia as long as the US is part of NATO.

[AustinDev]

>Ukraine is losing (very very slowly, and can still win),

This is not remotely true, Ukraine can't retake what it's lost they have no men left. If it were true Zelensky wouldn't be contemplating ceding territory to Russia. It sucks but Ukraine lost in 2014 when the world let Crimea get annexed with no response.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/zelensky-says-for-first-...

[aguaviva]

Ukraine can't retake what it's lost they have no men left.

You're extremifying.

You could have said "they don't have enough people". But instead you had to dial it up to "they have no men left".

No matter what is actually happening on the ground -- you definitely won't be able to make heads or tails of it, if you keep confounding yourself with rhetoric like this.

[rrr_oh_man]

> You could have said "they don't have enough people". But instead you had to dial it up to "they have no men left".

The realities of war are not LGBTQ-friendly.

My male cousin has not been allowed to leave the country for almost 3 years. His wife is in Germany.

[aguaviva]

I'm sorry you got triggered, but that was absolutely in no way what I was getting at.

That line had nothing whatsoever to do with this "people"/"men" nonsense. I was referring simply to the quantifier.

[rrr_oh_man]

Thanks for the explanation.

What’s the difference between those two?

[pinkmuffinere]

You’re missing the forest for the trees. You claim “they have no men left”. This is false, and reduces trust in everything else you say. You might be right about your main point, but the argument you provide is not convincing.

As one datapoint I’d love to hear a convincing argument, and really don’t have a strong opinion on who will win. If you make a more trustworthy argument for why Ukraine will lose, I promise I’ll read it

Edit: truthfully, this is the most convincing argument I’ve seen so far https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-ukraine-win-t...

[rrr_oh_man]

Are you sure you've replied to the right person?

[treyfitty]

What? Why are you shoehorning LGBTQ into this... the intent of “…no men left” is well understood, and the vast majority of soldiers in Ukraine are male. The colloquialism is the same as your username rrr_oh_man. Man, and men is used are used in the same vain.

And what does this have to do with your male cousin?

[rrr_oh_man]

Please re-read the thread, you might have misunderstood.

GP's comment was:

> You could have said "they don't have enough people". But instead you had to dial it up to "they have no men left"

which I, mistakenly, as GP pointed out here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42349533, assumed to be a play on "there are also women on the front". Which there are, but in vastly fewer numbers.

[AustinDev]

"War does not determine who is right—only who is left."

You're right that there are men still living in Ukraine, Zelensky is still alive after all. However, the manpower situation has been pretty bleak for a while. [1] I'm in regular contact with people in theater and I'm not far off in saying 'there are no men left'. Russia is still advancing albeit slowly. We'll likely have new borders in a few months. Almost time to update your globe.

[1] https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2024-03-16/ukraine-v...

[aguaviva]

We're broadly on the same page it seems. I just found that the original choice of wording tiltied more into the territory of spin than a sober assessment of the state of things. That is all. Unfortunately, this kind of blurring has permeated the general discourse.

Best to luck to whomever in your in contact with.

I won't be changing my globe for anyone, however.

[AustinDev]

People do put a lot of spin on this topic. Your initial reaction is completely understandable.

Thanks, hopefully they'll be home soon. I've been mowing his grass for nearly 3 years, hardly a commensurate sacrifice I must admit.

[arandomusername]

> Russia is still advancing albeit slowly

Isn't their rate of advancement a lot faster than a year ago?

[dralley]

In the sense that advancing by two fields a week is much faster than advancing by one field a week, yes. By any absolute metric it is not a "fast" advance.

The first week of the war was a "fast" advance. Even this "accelerated" rate is basically on par with WWI.

[aguaviva]

Yes, but it also seems to have plateaued, and has held steady for the past 9 months or so.

[the_mitsuhiko]

Just depends on how you define “winning”. Right now both Russia and Ukraine are losing a lot compared to before 2022.

[mrguyorama]

By their own goals, Russia already lost this war 2 years ago. They may end it with a little extra territory and people, but that's not a victory, again, by their own claims.