[tim333]

>models... AGI. ... unlikely to reach this milestone on their own.

I don't think there is a single milestone. Intelligence has many aspects - IQ test type ability, chess playing ability, emotional intelligence, ability to go down to the shops and buying something and so on.

AI is making gradual progress and is very good at some things like chess and very bad at others. There will probably be a gradual passing of different milestones on different dates. When they can replace a plumber including figuring out the problem and getting and fitting the parts might be a sign they can do most stuff.

There's probably a way to go there but there are a lot of resources being thrown at the problem just now.