[codexb]

Normal polling errors would lead you to believe that the actual results would fall equally and normally on both sides of the polling forecast. But they don't. The polling error is nearly always in one direction. Polling consistently underreports support for Trump in every case where we have actual results. We don't have this problem with other candidates, or even with other types of polls. There are theories about "low propensity voters" and maybe they don't show up in polls, but I suspect the real reason is more complex than that and involves some amount of self-reported filtering because of the demonization of Trump.

[paulryanrogers]

Perhaps Trump -- and Republican -- voters avoid taking polls or some are afraid to go on the record and admit how they're going to vote. For some there is a non-zero risk certain family members may cut off contact.

> ...some amount of self-reported filtering because of the demonization of Trump.

Indeed. He demonizes himself. I was ashamed to admit I voted for him in 2016.

[mlrtime]

Anecdote:

I know plenty of people who have said they have permanently cut off friends and family for having conservative views. I don't know one single conservative who has said the same.

[paulryanrogers]

> I don't know one single conservative who has said the same.

Could it be that progressives haven't behaved badly enough that supporting them warrants cutting off contact?

Like say taking away rights from an enter gender, separating kids from their parents and locking them in cages, granting broad immunity to corrupt ex-Presidents, attempting a coup, openly calling for violence, threatening to use the military against political opponents, etc.

[avmich]

It can probably be explained as an indication that Democratic candidates are "normal" ones, and a win of one isn't a reason for drastic measures, while Republican candidates are "not normal", and a win of a Republican is enough grounds to cut off friends...

[coding123]

I'm ashamed to admit I didn't vote for him this time around because I haven't been in my home state and traveling - couldn't really get access to a ballot or mail in ballot due to my traveling.