[jrk]

Your main point is the well-established modern consensus among economists, and nicely put. But what makes you think salaries don't keep up with inflation? In the postwar US, they absolutely have kept up over the long term. There are ups and downs depending on the strength of the labor market, and they don't always react instantly to short-term bursts of inflation (as in 2021-22), but over the long term they are steadily up even in the "great stagnation" period of the past 50 years:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N (individual) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N (household)

[photonthug]

Economics is a weird kind of physics that only requires some critical mass of people to believe or act like they believe and then it’s true, so arguing against the 2% ideal for inflation is a bit like debating gravity. From most people’s perspective it just is and understanding much less changing it is an impossible dream.

Whether salaries track inflation is also irrelevant as long as there are markets (like housing/education) that you are basically required to enter, and which have different dynamics. Would it matter if wages and inflation were in lock step if the toilet paper market was wildly out of control? Could people work around this issue by wisely waiting for a better time to use the toilet?

[jrk]

My first point was not that economics as a discipline is infallible, just that this was the opposite of a “hot take.”

Regarding some costs (especially housing) growing faster than the overall rate of inflation: of course they do, just as some grow more slowly or even deflate. The index here is computed based on the average amount people spend on these different categories (the consumer price index), so the need to spend a large share on housing (or toilet paper) *is already included* in the inflation measure.