[therealcamino]

It seems to me like a more valid way to describe that work is that, you can predict an artist's long-term success based on their early success.

The first five venues where an artist exhibits isn't wholly based on their social networks, but also tells you how excited the art world is about their work. Since attitudes about the work or the artist are key factors in establishing what their early network is, I don't see how you can conclude that the work and the artist are irrelevant, but the network is relevant.