[cadamsau]

Warning: not an economist :)

I recognize your point but am wary of it being supported with direct job creation numbers, as that doesn’t reflect the scale of secondary industries (ie. indirect jobs created by oil & mining may be a larger number than direct jobs created) and also, job numbers don’t reflect the scale of the companies creating the jobs.

[vidarh]

There's now doubt it'd have secondary effects, which is why I didn't try to make a precise comparison. Shutting down the oil industry would certainly make a difference. Hence the focus on shuffling so much of it into the oil fund (the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund owns ~1.5% of all listed shares globally at this point) to compensate, but there's no realistic scenario where it'd account for a large proportion of jobs.

In terms of value, yes, it'd have a much greater impact, which is why they're being taxed at rates that even for Norway are absolutely extreme, and why the oil fund does not invest inside Norway, and why such a small proportion of the oil funds investment returns are spent each year - it's been a very intentional government policy for decades to both prepare for a future without the oil income and to reduce the effect it has.