[n4r9]

Does it? My conservative hypothesis is: it requires a good nose for good thinkers.

[bjornsing]

Having a good nose for good thinkers typically requires thinking.

[n4r9]

I'm not so sure. I think there are people who can recognise talent by gut feel, without having much themselves.

[psb217]

Well, the ability to identify talent is itself a talent. The skills for identifying talent may be relatively unaligned with demands of the field in which one is identifying talent, but I figure it's helpful to be at least competent in the domain where you're trying to pick winners. In "star driven" fields like music, film, or sports, you can make a good living off the ability to identify (and perhaps nurture) talent which you yourself don't have.