[RcouF1uZ4gsC]

Is there a betting market for this?

I don’t care who is researching this, we won’t have AGI by 2027 and super intelligence by 2030s.

> Based on trends in AI capabilities research since GPT-2, we are on course to expect AGI by 2027. Once AGI capability is available, if labs focus on automating AI research itself, progress in AI should accelerate. If similar progress can be achieved as the phase from GPT-2 to GPT-4, or GPT-4 to AGI, we should expect Superintelligence before the end of the decade.

[a2128]

IIRC OpenAI has a clause in their agreement with Microsoft that they can terminate sharing models if they develop AGI. So it might not be a good bet unless you believe there will never be shenanigans (either "we developed AGI but Microsoft won't let us declare it" or "we developed 'AGI', now we're free from Microsoft")