[eric-hu]

This is really interesting how you’ve explained it.

In many professional fights the competitors start matches with light, quick jabs to probe their opponents defense.

This feels just like that now that you put it this way. I never connected those dots though.

[diggan]

Maybe it's because I'm Swedish and we've experienced Russia's "probing defenses" tactic for a very long time (mainly "breaking" into Swedish airspace with airplanes, and discovering submarines at the Swedish shores), but I always thought this was common knowledge, always interesting to learn it isn't for everyone :)

[eric-hu]

I lived in Taiwan for a while and China does this to Taiwan often. Flying planes into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, sailing warships through the strait. It’s portrayed in (US, TW) media as war preparations, but some locals assume it’s all bark with no bite. How are those Russian actions portrayed in Swedish media?

[chii]

when your enemy cry wolf consistently, you can become complacent and stop being overly alert.

This conditioning is how you prepare for an actual attack, so that they're not prepared at the actual time of the real attack. It's also why some military exercises near a country is considered provocative, even tho it's "just an exercise".

Not to mention that it drains resources to respond/monitor these cry-wolf fakes.

[Gud]

Not just Russian. Even NATO aircraft were rejected frequently, though not anymore for obvious reasons.

https://youtu.be/Z_EnkvE6LZA

[lifestyleguru]

The situation escalated beyond probing, this is tit for tat response for Ukraine getting and launching US tactical missiles. Russia seems to be now aggressively monitoring and raiding the submarine pipes and cables. Blowing up of Nord Stream made Russia go ballistic.

[diggan]

> The situation escalated beyond probing

Not sure we understand "probing" differently. Russian currently is at the edges, testing the responses from things like cutting cables and otherwise interfering with the infrastructure. This is what "probing" means for me. "Beyond probing" would be actually launching attacks one way or another, which we haven't seen yet (except of course, for the Ukraine invasion).

[onlypassingthru]

> actually launching attacks one way or another, which we haven't seen yet

On the contrary. The attacks have been ongoing for years now. You're looking for the tanks and missiles when the attack is actually happening right under your feet. Rot and corruption are more powerful than any bullets or missiles.

[lifestyleguru]

> Rot and corruption are more powerful than any bullets or missiles.

The developed world knows this even better. Offering yachts, real estate, supercars, prostitutes, and other luxuries to oligarchs. Thanks to this their military is rather in shambles right now.

[Terr_]

... Wow, this must be peak Kremlin shilling: Blaming other countries for Russia's decades of kleptocratic leadership and endemic corruption at all levels.

It's historically, financially, and strategically incoherent. Trying to bribe people who are already rich with hard-to-hide things, just to make them extra-corrupt in the vague hope that it somehow results in pilfered AK-47s being sold on the black market?

Sorry, but no: Being shaken down by Russian traffic cops for bribes every week is a domestic problem.

[onlypassingthru]

Does it? You think Russia can't corrupt a German Chancellor or a US President? Boy have I got news for you!

[euroderf]

A next step for them might be to disable/poison something like an entire urban water distribution system. But come to think of it, the US et al. might be able to do the same back to Russia. Because, you see, there is a whole 'nother ladder of escalation to explore.

A submarine cable is an attractive target for Russia because Russia doesn't have cables of their own exposed: Russia is a continental power, not a maritime alliance. A cable attack is an asymmetric attack, difficult to respond to appropriately.

[mongol]

I recently saw a cable from St Petersburg to Kaliningrad at one of these maps.

[jajko]

It would be a shame if somebody dragged a massive ship anchor over it by accident. Through potato field.

[fsckboy]

>"Beyond probing" would be actually launching attacks one way or another, which we haven't seen yet

he's saying "this was not a probe, this was an actually launched attack"

[drtgh]

> Blowing up of Nord Stream made Russia go ballistic

Russia started invading Ukraine six months before Nord Stream blow up. Previously Russia invaded Crimea in 2014.

The next invaded country, will be also an escalation?

All of this is about a few psychopaths filling their pockets with the money that generates the corpses of their criminal business, some encouraging the production of war, others encouraging the waging of war.

Why are these psychopaths and their "business" not prosecuted?

[Numerlor]

Because their prosecution means going to war. I don't know about you but as someone living less than 30 minutes from Ukraine I don't want my country to go to war.

[wbl]

Si vis pacem, para bellum.

[dgfitz]

> If you want peace, prepare for war

[groby_b]

And what makes you think it won't, anyways?

Quoth Churchill: "An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile-hoping it will eat him last."

The crocodile is still intent on eating you, even if you're nice to it. I really wish Europe would start understanding that.

[jyounker]

If Ukraine falls, the war is coming whether we like it or not.

[mediaman]

Who are you referring to? Putin and Russian oligarchs? If so, how would you imagine the mechanics of prosecuting them to work?

[lifestyleguru]

German political and industrial elite with their former chancellor are within the reach of Western jurisdiction. They were smirking at Trump when he was exactly pointing out their dependency on Russian gas so.... who knows...

[llamaimperative]

No, decades of rampant kleptocracy and alcoholism made Russia go ballistic

[WalterSear]

Decades? I suppose that 40 decades is still decades.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vK7l55ZOVIc

[snapcaster]

so i guess you've got russia all figured out. what's your excuse for the staggering amounts of violence and invasions from americans?

[llamaimperative]

A savior complex that's sometimes misled, sometimes absolutely warranted.

[codezero]

Which regions has the US annexed into its constitution?

[mrguyorama]

>This feels just like that now that you put it this way. I never connected those dots though.

Boxers learned from the art of war, not the other way around.

"Probing attacks" are a standard doctrine. It's not always a clear signal of intent to increase hostilities because it's also just useful as an intelligence gathering exercise.