[082349872349872]

So what's your take on Gwern's 2030 estimate?

I've only been playing around with free LLMs and GANs for the moment, but they definitely seem to be more on the cargo culting stochastic parrot side, in that (for the former) I can make queries that self-contain all the elements for a sol'n and they don't find it, and (for the latter) they go into the weeds on what I'd think were simple, SHRLDU-level, compositions.

That said, I hadn't expected we'd even get this far so quickly, so ???

[gradschoolfail]

If you interpret (like i do) AGI as “median human level allweather selfdriving cars”, 2030 sounds a little optimistic even for that.

If AGI is IMO 6/6(/6) 2030 might be even less optimistic but the confidence interval for “Bethlehem*” is wider..

Weeds sounds like shlep without the chutzpah while your former sounds like chutzpah without the shlep?

For the optimum (i.e. “pinnacle”) shall we use the latinate term “panache”? (Or do you have something more victorian)

*the Shoggoth shlepping towards <= welleremembered ~Edwardian poem

[082349872349872]

Panache sounds good to me; in that case what would a Radler be? (or not-yet-fermented* new wine? Argies, I understand, even drink Calimochos, which sounds to me like something you'd have to grow up with to appreciate?)

* looks like this is nearly universal, eg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tapai

[gsf_emergency]

génépy-class, sometimes abortifacient?

(The rue-ing tends to be DIY in your locality)