[Y-bar]

Unfortunately it not "just" about war now. The changing climate has also significantly increased the risk for major disruptions on social services such as fresh water supply, electricity, sanitation, and roads/track. We now also need to add those to the list of real risks to prepare for.

[mdp2021]

Niall Ferguson recently gave a speech, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocYvwiSYDTA (Address to the 2024 CIS Consilium on the Gold Coast),

in which he says that WWIII may be a more urgent risk. It's a race.

[Y-bar]

This reminds me of Department of Defense Climate Risk Analysis from three years ago where they remind us that there will be increased international conflicts due to the effects of climate change:

https://media.defense.gov/2021/Oct/21/2002877353/-1/-1/0/DOD... (1.5 MB PDF)

[mdp2021]

Interesting (and very plain, understandable, commonsensical) - but of course some running conflicts are not not strongly related to climate change.

Of course, when Niall Ferguson spoke, it looked at the contingency: he sees a possibility of catastrophic consequences that may come much earlier than the climatic "Armageddon". (Well, in some news peices today they spoke about "before Xmas"... It makes the order of events very definite.)

[illiac786]

I feel the worst will be migration. This is going to be pretty ugly.