[blub]

Likely response is bombing whatever is left of Ukrainian power generation and potentially arming the Houthis.

The analysis I’ve seen indicates that these weapons will not fundamentally alter the course of the war. Kursk was a gamble to improve Ukraine’s negotiating position, which has gotten consistently worse.

[monetus]

Maybe I'm wrong, but with the river north of the Ukrainian border, it seemed like they wanted that as new easier to maintain defensive line.

The defenses in the north were affected by incompetence or corruption, so the push north came across a little like shoring up their positions to need fewer men in the long run.