| I have a theory that everything is BS politics now. (Maybe it always has been.) Is Elon's new lawsuit still on? Does Elon's new political situation affect it? Altman recently wrote an X post showing an OpenAI model making a less left-leaning reply than Grok. What I am really waiting for over the next couple of years is for someone to demonstrate real progress in scaling the next hardware paradigm. Probably something fairly different like a completely memory-focused type of computation. Built on memristors or something. There have been examples built by labs, but they had relatively tiny amounts of compute, albeit theoretically with the _potential_ for massive efficiency gains in some future form. The next 100X or 1000X efficiency gain from a new hardware paradigm may make a lot of the current generation's infrastructure and bickering mostly irrelevant. And I think it will be a huge boost to open source AI. In my opinion, what's relevant is not any particular deal or company, but that we develop and adapt to a nuanced cultural understanding of what types and levels of AI capability can help us and which will actually be dangerous sooner or later, and how to fairly deploy the beneficial and avoid the dangerous. But I think it needs to be a broad understanding in society. |