[TheUnhinged]

You’re right, it doesn’t mean anything related to a physical dimension. Its sole purpose is to show shrinkage (in terms of density) compared to the previous generation.

That being said, assuming that the Chinese “3nm” is comparable to the rest of the industry’s nodes, I highly doubt they can make it. “7nm” is/was the last node size that could be produced without EUV (while still economically viable). And that was with multiple-patterning on Immersion scanners.

China doesn’t and can’t have EUV. They do have Immersion, but that’s now also under export controls.

[merb]

Well they only can’t have euv because of the Netherlands. Depending what the eu or the USA does the Netherlands can stop listening to the USA.

[itsthecourier]

They cannot stop listening.

If the US desires so they can block software technology and laser technology for exports to ASML using de minimis rules (which doesn't bother if the end product uses less than 25% of US tech), in that sense, they send that number to 0% and a fight broke up

Hopefully they won't and the human race can advance further

[blackeyeblitzar]

I believe EUV was licensed to ASML since it came out of a defense department research project. So the US probably does have a say for machines that use EUV.

[merb]

Well maybe. But without further experimentation it would probably not that viable. It also needs a lot of tech which is also developed by a European company, that has basically 90% of that market. And know the us has a president that is not eu friendly, we will See what happens.

[itsthecourier]

Last time they navigated thru Trump. The last ASML book (April 2024) said the Biden administration was able to reinstate a united front to recover from Trump's mishaps:

"The Trump administration spelled chaos for the National Security Council: key figures abruptly departed, and a large amount of people were dismissed. Under the Biden administration, however, the staff expanded to more than 350 people, all united in orchestrating the plan to halt China’s advance and boost the American chip industry with billions in state aid. The NSC also ensured that the relevant departments adhered to the established strategy. Geopolitics demands discipline, not a cackling henhouse. Even before he was sworn in, Joe Biden pulled out all the diplomatic stops to coordinate export restrictions with allies. America started playing chess on several boards at once. In the Trade and Technology Council (TTC), a strategic dialogue between the EU and the US, discussions included export restrictions and stimulus plans for the domestic chip industry."

[zaptrem]

Idk what incentive they would have to do that given iirc they’re selling basically every EUV machine they can make right now?

[hulitu]

> China doesn’t and can’t have EUV.

Famous last words. /s

[itsthecourier]

EUV is the most complex machine on earth.

China has tried to create them in house, they have brought talent from TSMC, chinese employees whom worked in ASML, yet it is way too complex. No country in the world has all the pieces and even though it took decades to ASML to breakthrough with EUV.

And now they are working with high numerical amplitude (high NA) systems, even further.

My fear is after Wennick and Van Den Brink, we don't know if the show may go on. Hope they found their Tim Cook.

The US still has Jepsen Huang and Lisa Su. But I'm sure the next generation of semiconductor golden boys is growing up in China. The military discipline and community values they exude is admirable. In that sense Taiwan, Japan and Korea served the US, who shared the bonanza of being the benign world hegemon for almost a century.

Even though, I may be wrong, the words of Buffet always follow my analysis: never bet against the US