[mapt]

You believe I'm overestimating current AI. While my estimations are probably a bit higher than yours, mostly I think you're overestimating hydrogen bombs. They're not that complicated, and not that secret in 2024. These AI models have every unclassified scientific paper and every nonfiction book ever published on the subject at their disposal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermonuclear_weapon

It's a mechanistic process featuring well-tread factual, verbose discourse. Scientists reasoning about facts and presenting what they found. "Tell me a joke about elephant mating habits in the form of a rap song" is a dramatically more complex task of synthesis.