[anon373839]

I didn’t say it always predicted Harris the winner. I said that it was predicting her to win just before the election. She was also leading during the entire period between August 17-October 10, and likely somewhat earlier (I can only see the 90-day history on my phone).

The point here is that there is no “the prediction markets” one can speak of as a cohesive unit.

[alecst]

I don’t see how someone at ~50/100 odds is predicted to win. That’s just a toss up with a slight statistical edge. Goes for both candidates.